It’s time to work it out; let’s not simply bailout...

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US real-estate bubble is fed with the same malfeasance as the ’90s stock-market bubble

IN April, Henry Paulson, the Treasury Secretary, declared that all the signs he saw indicated that the housing market was “at or near the bottom.” He insisted that problems caused by the meltdown in the market for subprime mortgages were “largely contained.” But the time for denial is past as both housing starts & applications for building permits have fallen to their lowest levels in a decade, showing that home construction is still in free fall. And if historical relationships are any guide, then the housing slump will probably be with us for years, not months. It’s becoming clear that the mortgage problem is anything but contained. It’s not just confined to subprime mortgages, which are loans to people who don’t satisfy the standard financial criteria. There are also growing problems in socalled Alt-A mortgages, which are another 20% of the mortgage market. Problems are starting to appear in prime loans too.

Many on Wall Street are clamouring for a bailout – for someone to step in & buy mortgage-backed securities from troubled hedge funds. But that would be like saving bad actors from the consequences of their misdeeds. For it is becoming increasingly clear that the real-estate bubble of recent years, like the stock bubble of the late ’90s, both caused and was fed by widespread misconduct. Rating agencies like Moody’s Investors Service, seem to have played a similar role to that played by complacent accountants in the corporate scandals of a few years ago. In the ’90s, accountants certified dubious earning statements; in this decade, rating agencies declared dubious mortgage-backed securities to be highest quality, AAA assets. Yet our desire to avoid letting bad actors off the hook shouldn’t prevent us from doing the right thing for borrowers who were victims of the bubble.

Most of the proposals for dealing with the problems of subprime borrowers are of the locking-the-barn-door-after-the-horse-is gone variety: They would curb abusive lending practices – which would have been very useful three years ago – but they wouldn’t help much now. What we need at this point is a policy to deal with the consequences of the housing bust.

Consider a borrower who can’t meet the mortgage payments and is facing foreclosure. In the past, the bank would oft en have been willing to offer a workout, modifying the loan’s terms to make it affordable, because what the borrower was able to pay would be worth more to the bank than its incurring the costs of foreclosure and trying to resell the home. Today, however, the mortgage broker who made the loan is usually the first link in a financial merry-go-round. The mortgage was bundled with others and sold to investment banks, which in turn sliced and diced the claims to produce artificial assets that Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s were willing to classify as AAA. And the result – there’s nobody to deal with.

Looks like a clear case of government intervention. There’s a serious market failure, and fixing that could greatly help hundreds of thousands of Americans. The federal government shouldn’t be providing bailouts, rather help to arrange workouts. This would need a lot of work, from lawyers as well as financial experts. It would involve federal agencies buying mortgages – not the securities conjured up from these mortgages, but the original loans – at a steep discount, then renegotiating the terms. The point, is that doing nothing isn’t the only alternative to letting the parties who got us into this mess off the hook. Say no to bailouts – but let’s help borrowers work things out.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

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The Nuclear Discord?

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Have you heard the tale of seven blind men dishing out their own profound insights over an elephant? Cut through the fog of jargon being dished out by pundits, propagandists and ideologues over the controversial nuclear deal between India and the United States and you can’t help recalling that story. Each pundit has his or her own take; each commentator claims complete mastery over the subject and each ideologue prefers to project his blinkered vision as the one that serves best the interests of India. Unfortunately, even the mainstream media seems to have succumbed to the temptation of pamphleteering and propaganda. Suddenly, television channels, newspapers and magazines are full of stories about how the nuclear deal is the greatest thing that has happened to India since Gautam Budha was born. Suddenly, the United States of America has become the best friend, ally and strategic partner that India has ever had in its long and chequered history. Suddenly, everybody seems to be suggesting that the nuclear deal will almost magically solve India’s intractable problem of energy security.

It doesn’t help matters when the opposition to the nuclear deal comes primarily from the Left , which stands badly discredited in eyes of urban middle class Indians because of its own double standards and more importantly, because of the intemperate manner in which the apparatchiks of the CPM and the CPI dictate terms to the UPA government. Besides, the CPM is perceived to be batting on behalf of the Chinese State; not the smartest thing to do at the moment. Even the opposition displayed by the BJP has no credibility because it was the BJP led NDA government that initiated the dialogue with Uncle Sam that has culminated in the nuclear deal.

What’s missing in all this is a sober, objective and unemotional assessment of the issues involved. After all, it is foreign policy and India’s strategic interests that one is talking about; not a Hindi soap where emotions, drama, tears and wails rule over facts. But then, India’s tragedy has been that its leaders have usually pursued foreign policy and strategic interests in an emotional and populist manner, unlike Great powers like America and China whose strategists think 30 years down the road.

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It’s ‘My’ Time now!!!

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Companies bet big on customisation

Of late, the concept of social networking has oft en been dented into one’s head, and if trends are an indication, then perhaps the future will see it drilled. While social networking has caught on in massive proportions (India stands third in Orkut subscriptions & Facebook is catching up), e-mail providers are on war footing when it comes to our nation.

So while one notices Rediff CEO Balakrishnan flying rather frequently in and out of the Big Apple (negotiating perhaps a sellout with Yahoo or Google), at home, Times Internet has shaken dust and is bracing itself for challenges to confront in the near future. A recent revamp of their mail services is testimony enough to look at Indiatimes in a new light.

“The consumption of internet is a very individual process, merely providing one kind of content for all does not work,” says Dinesh Wadhawan, CEO & MD, Times Internet. So be it MyYahoo or iGoogle, what holds the key is perhaps the degree of fl exibility that a service provider can offer akin to building blocks. The tools are at you disposal, build however you may please. But does salvation only lie in flexibility or is there a consumer loyalty factor that lurks behind all that jazz. Or rather what exactly is that one differentiating factor that guys at Indiatimes are betting on? “First of all, MyIndiatimes is not a MyYahoo or iGoogle,” says Mohit Hira, Marketing Head at MyIndiatimes, “whilethrough MyYahoo & iGoogle, you can only allow personalisation of your personal homepage and prescribed products respectively, with MyIndiatimes, soon you would be able to access Yahoo mail and Gmail as well. While Bennett & Coleman, father to Indiatimes, needs no introduction in this country, it stands as a regional player in the global village with Google and Yahoo playing big daddies. To challenge their dominance, is a big leap ahead, and the company will need every bit of its India expertise developed over the years in order to go the distance.

B&E edit bureau: Shashank Shekhar

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Fashion in the air...

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The tenth exposition of the much acclaimed Wills Lifestyle Fashion Week (the spring summer edition) was very recently announced by the FDCI to take place in New Delhi from September 5 to 9. The grand event which is due to witness 72 fashion designers unveil their collections, makes the largest business platform for Indian designers & marketers. No need to mention that noteworthy names are all going to participate. Ace designer Rohit Bal will be doing grand finale, with his collections, ‘Intertwined’ & ‘Syahi’. And throwing the latest (and growing) trend out of the window, Bal has even announced that he’d not have Bollywood celebrities for the show because as he mentions it, it is the costume that needs all the attention! An industry that’s worth a whopping $1.8 billion already and growing at 20-30%... needless to say is growing bigger… and for the better.

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The state(s) of fallacies

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Bushwhacked! Gore’s not giving up yet....

Armchair critics might be sniffing for another whiff of thick smog from the environmentally conscientious former Vice President of the States, or at least that’s the impression one gets, considering how far all the bushwhacking has taken Al Gore on the road to revival. Anyway, Gore’s ‘An Assault on Reason,’ in a sort of metaphor that mars the American landscape today, promises a structured and intelligently designed – and at times passionately raw – series of arguments impelling one to sit up and notice innumerable questionable and atrocious policy decisions that’s become so very dubiously Dubya’s.

The book is not an invasion. It’s ‘Bushvasion’, but with valid beliefs that are apparently apolitical. And for that, credit is due to Al Gore. In today’s day and age where ignorance needn’t be bliss, Gore presents a rather gory picture of the affaires quotidiennes of American politics and how reality television has been used as a tool against the common citizenry. “What has happened to our country? People are trying to figure out what has gone wrong in our democracy, and how we can fi x it.” Perhaps propagandist to conspired ears, but it is this theme that more or less forms the basis of Gore’s lengthy salutation to democracy, its functions, and its founders. And much like his blunt and piercing ‘Oscar-venture’ documentary on the climatic challenges that lie ahead, Al Gore talks about the dangers of a society without a conscience. A bunch that allows absurd reasons to bypass a war that killed 3,000 of their very own, and ravaged an already miserable nation. A society where newspapers have lost relevance and public opinions imposed by fashionably suited multimillionaire Congressmen who win elections sponsoring 30 seconds spots on TV but without much reason and without any debate. Amidst such ‘typically American trends’, Al Gore professes gloom.

It’s been seven long years since the fateful 2000 elections, following which Al Gore appeared to have pretty much resigned from public life. But that veiled existence was short term. Hanging up Democrat responsibilities, Mr. Gore jumped into the war zone criticising the White House of imposing a ‘spectator’ war on the television-obsessed country. In The Assault... he talks of how the American junta was misled into believing Saddam’s connections with 9/11. “The persistent and sustained reliance on falsehoods as the basis of policy, even in the face of massive and well-understood evidence to the contrary, seems to many Americans to have reached levels that were previously unimaginable,” quotes Al Gore from Robert Byrd of West Virginia, the longest serving Senator in the American Congress.

As much as can be held against the beleaguered Bush, Mr. Gore has summed it all up. From the absurdity of his policies to the ills of ‘secret strategies’ that hover around the White House, he stuck his neck out with facts that scream for global attention. Be the administration’s sudden collapse in times of calamity, as during Hurricane Katrina or the sudden revised medicare benefits, Al Gore warns of a state being run while suppressing reason – the most basic idea behind democracy.

His, however, is not an argument with a lost cause. Perhaps a trifle over-ambitious, Gore pins his hopes on the Internet. His belief in the world coming closer through constant deliberations over blogs and communities does seem a bit farfetched considering Americans spending close to 100 million hours collectively, with each passing week, watching mind numbing reality TV re-runs.

However, in Mr. Gore lies a man with true conviction. For in The Assault on Reason, he comes across as a writer frustrated with a regime that has consistently treated the rest of the world with dangerously dismissive arrogance. And eventually all he asks for is reason…

Edit bureau: Shashank Shekhar

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An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Concrete Harmony!

... to put your house in order!

A pleasantly fragrant whiff of air even as you stroll through the lobby; large glass panels, sun rays penetrating through them; beautified walls coupled with light music soothing the senses… Not exactly the setting for a hospital, but if that’s what hospitals were like, healing would become a lot easier & perhaps faster too. Shaking your head in disagreement, are you? Well, it may sound uncanny but the architecture, colours, textures & even shapes affect human behaviour to an extent, that if used effectively, can foster therapeutic healing. . . Healing architecture, in simple terms, can be explained as designing the structure of the building such, that it causes a general feel good mood. And this concept of healing is increasingly gaining prominence the world over, which “till now was ignored while designing a building”, opines Dr. Dharmendra Nagar, MD, Paras Hospitals. While ‘beauty’ forms an indispensable part of such therapy, the structure must functionally be in tune with nature to get that perfect healing touch. “Allowing natural light into the buildings, especially ICUs, helps patients be less prone to depression & reduces the risk of a common problem, ‘ICU psychosis’, where patients lose all bearings regarding time & space. . . & therefore quicker recovery,” says Dr. Nagar. A case study at the South Downs Health NHS Trust in the UK revealed that when original architecture of lodgings from a Victorian, brick institution with unusually high ceilings (accommodating 15 patients in one large room) was changed to single wards & its name changed to a more pleasing Mill View Hospital Hove, there was a significant improvement in patients’ recovery, who also seemed extremely satisfied with the treatment as well! Similarly, many places like St. Vincent’s Hospital, Indianapolis & Kosair Children’s Hospital, Louisville, apart from others are redesigning wards to give a personal space for patients, fostering their recovery & instilling in them a sense of inner tranquillity that affected them in ways that’ll perhaps never be known to the staunch believers in medicine & technology!
Edit bureau: Pooja Priyadarshini

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The energy gamble

Anil’s presence rests on his energy empire’s future potential

Power corrupts, and absolute power can be a mirage that can faze even the hardened veterans. Reliance Energy is all about power. Not the power that the Ambanis are famed to have exercised over the last few decades. It is about generating and distributing electricity. So far, Anil Ambani has displayed the ‘Ambani’ brand of grand proportions while announcing power projects.

Power generation would be the ticket that could propel Anil into the stratosphere of corporate stardom that is now monopolized by Mukesh. If the plans do pan out eventually, Reliance Energy can become the behemoth that Reliance Industries is today. After all, the Tenth Five Year Plan has projected that India needs to add 1,00,000 MW of capacity by 2012 if power cuts are to become a memory. Even if Anil manages to grab 20% of that, the business would be worth Rs.500 billion every year. Add transmission and distribution, where Reliance Energy already plays a role in Mumbai, Delhi and Orissa, and you get a glimpse of the power house that Anil can create.

Like all fairy tale stories in real life, this one too has a few blemishes. For one, the power projects are dependent on gas that will be supplied by the parent Reliance. Till the brothers were together, Mukesh and Anil could indulge in creative internal transfer pricing to kill any birds with one stone. Now, Anil will need to buy gas from Mukesh at market prices.

More importantly, Anil might find his power ambitions thwarted by politics. Th e eternal hunt for votes has forced major political parties to stall the Electricity Act of 2003. With the reform process in the dog house, bankrupt state electricity boards and massive transmission and distribution losses will mean no serious player will dare to enter the power sector.

The Ambanis are known to pull off miracles. If one particular Rajya Sabha member from U.P. concurs, Anil Ambani can persuade fellow politicians to allow power sector reforms; and then he might just snatch the ‘powerful’ tag from elder brother Mukesh.

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One of the social initiatives undertaken by JSW – a rural BPO

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Furthermore, Har Ravindra Lal, AVP - HR, JSW adds, “We have pro-active approach and issues are addressed without much ado. If there’s no union it’s because the management acts as proxy union for them. This ultimately results into high involvement of people in all areas.” The company also undertakes various social& welfare initiatives which serve the company well.

Well, all of this was the real truth which we can marvel at – so much of it, yet so little! We could see the smoke coming out of the plant, as we bid farewell to the grand furnace at Vijayanagar and all that flashed across our minds was that we were witnessing a chronicle of one more global steel behemoth like Arcelor-Mittal, Nippon, Posco et al in the making.

‘Let’s make JSW world class, second to none – Sajjan Jindal’ (as a billboard proclaims). Sure enough, given the pattern in which JSW is painting success, it’s surely a mega-multi-billion dollar global steel corporation in the making! And the only question that now remains to be asked is – how long...?!

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Adjectives are not enough to describe the feeling of magnificence which seeps in while sauntering around the sprawling hi-tech centre of Satyam Computers in Hyderabad. The 100-plus acre campus can easily be regarded as one of the most sophisticated and scenic sites for an IT enterprise in the country, which can loudly boast of golf courses, deer parks, dormitories and training facilities at par with the best in the world. And it all started with a journey that began in 1987, with the young management graduate Ramalinga Raju walking all the way!

Today, Satyam has evolved into a company which operates in 55 countries and has a strong base of 541 active clients. Over the years, Satyam has transformed into a complete IT solution provider with expertise in consulting and enterprise business solutions, integrated business solutions & application development & maintenance services. The global recognition of Satyam can also be judged by the fact that its client list includes 158 Fortune Global 500 giants!

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Not A Happy Ending Yet

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One of the critical success factors for the steel sector will be captive iron-ore mines. Principally because of this highly scarce resource, the sector is magnetising players like Posco & Arcelor Mittal. Both have plans to set up 12 MTPA plants each. But at the moment, the government is refusing to play ball, leaving the players high & dry. Additionally, with more and more foreign players like Sinosteel, Nisshin et al planning to set up steel plants in the country, this battle for captive-iron ore mines will become more malevolent. Besides, energy supplies, hurdles inprocuring raw materials, logistics et al can act as mood dampeners. Sustaining the low cost advantage will be another mammoth challenge.

The story for other metal sectors is not very different. For expansions, most players have taken significant debt and servicing them is difficult task. Currently, the debt/equity ratio of quite a few companies has taken a hit. K.M. Birla admitted on the Novelis acquisition, “The current debt-equity ratio of Hindalco, at 0.2-0.3 will definitely go up.” In future, it could become worse. Most of the metal sectors are now moving past their mid-points in the up-cycle. Overall plateauing of demand is a big threat, considering that these companies rely heavily on operating leverage. If this time the downturn comes up, the impact will be more severe. Are the metal players ready for this eventuality, or will those good ol’ skeptics be proved right once again?

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Aspiring for ‘More’

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AV Birla Group now plans to diversify into retail

What is required to build a spectacular, unfatomable global footprint? The $24 billion Aditya Birla Group should know. The group has 50% of its revenues pouring from its operations across the world. The combined turnover of the group was $9 billion in FY ’07, as compared to $6 billion in FY ’06. Profits were at $1.25 billion in FY ’07, as against $0.73 billion in FY ’06.

The K. M. Birla-led group made reverberations with the entry in the telecom segment by way of Idea Cellular acquisition in 2006. The $6 billion acquisition of Novelis, an aluminum rolling and recycling company, in 2007 showcases a gargantuan appetite for expansion, which is also being seen in the cement & VSF, where the company is making massive expansion plans.

And now, albeit a trifle late in the day, the group wants to enter retail with the brand name ‘More’. Birla reveals, “Our mission is to change the way people shop. We will give them more.” Surely, the investors would not mind ‘more’ either!

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Capitalising gains & goods

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The capital goods sector will continue to see robust order intake as economic activity in infrastructure, including power & manufacturing, remains strong


Ever since the planning process started in 1951, the Indian industrial strategy has been centered around the growth of robust engineering. The capital goods sector is the backbone of any developing economy and stronger the backbone, the healthier the growth. This backbone of the Indian economy has seen a splurge of growth for the last few years. Robust order book position, continuing and relatively high order intake, backed by investment growth in the country and strategic moves on the part of the industry constituents in augmenting capacity, upgrading technology, expanding product offering has helped the industry to sustain strong growth on a higher base at both earning and revenue levels. According to FICCI, the sector has grown at the rate of 17.8% in FY07, as compared to 16.3% in FY06 and imports at $54.7 billion, 36.8% higher than last year.

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Public Interest?

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The State must get over its control mentality...

There appears to be a strange sense of déjà vu every time you watch or hear the Union Minister for Information & Broadcasting ‘reassure’ the nation that he is not keen on controlling the content that flows out of the dozens of private news channels across the country. In the same breath, the Minister criticises the news channels for peddling sensational news. Twice in 2007, Priya Ranjan Das Munshi has banned the telecast of two general entertainment channels for having the gall to show obscene visuals to the vast masses of India. In the backdrop of the growing intolerance of the Indian society towards freedom of speech and expression, the musings of the I&B Minister appear even more alarming.

There is no doubt that some news channels are making a mockery of the very word ‘news’. Stories of love affairs between professors and students, of a snake chasing a woman endlessly, of a man forecasting the precise time of his death, or even of a starlet claiming to be the wife of Abhishek Bachchan do stretch credibility. There is no doubt that television news channels in India are sometimes literally going berserk while providing breathless round-the clock coverage of trivia. Yet, it is incomprehensible to even think that the I&B Ministry and the bureaucrats in the ministry start dictating what ‘proper’ news is; and what isn’t. The logical destination of this creeping censorship would be a throwback to the dark days of Emergency, when freedom of speech and expression was trampled upon and destroyed. The Minister must recognise the fact that the freedom of the media is non-negotiable and that he cannot invoke tired old clichés like ‘public interest’ to try and gag the media as and when his whims take over. During the British Imperial rule, the State frequently invoked ‘public interest’ to perpetuate Imperialism and throttle voices of protest. After Independence, the Indian State took over the job of dictating what ‘public interest’ is. The I&B Minister really has no business to tell news channels that they should refrain from using terms like ‘Meena’ and ‘Gujjar’ while covering the recent upheaval in Rajasthan. How will telling it as it violate or disturb ‘public interest’?

Frankly, ‘public interest’ has become a bit of a joke as the term merely provided a fig leaf to hopelessly corrupt bureaucrats and politicians to shield themselves from scrutiny and accountability. That’s why you find bureaucrats not complying with requests under the Right To Information Law by blandly stating that ‘public interest’ is involved. The Minister must realise that bad old days of control and more control are over. A democracy needs a free media.

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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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Who said it has bid adieu?

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Apartheid is still openly practised and preached in South Africa...

A partheid has been officially over, more than one and a half decade back, but in essence, racism is still rampantly practised. For all the big talks about the efficacy of democracy and how it has brought about a paradigm shift , in reality, things still remain as they were.

The gruesome murder of John Rampuru in August 2000, who was ruthlessly dragged behind the pick up van of his white boss till death, amply vindicates that apartheid is not just present but is violent too. No wonder John Rampuru was just a one-off example of thousands of such incidents that take place every year over there. In another incident, a black teenage girl was covered in white paint by white shop staff who accused her of theft. Shockingly, law keepers do not even consider these cases as racist. Yet on the contrary, South African human rights groups believe that most of the murders (24,000) and attempt to murders (28,000) are racist in nature.

Several reports clearly state that there has always been a history of unequal distribution of wealth in South Africa, where the white minority holds more than 90% of the land. Moreover, the socio-economic status of black people makes them venerable to infections like TB and HIV/AIDS. These blacks live in destitute settlements and more likely to be poor and unemployed. On the employment front, even if black and whites are given the same job titles, the job responsibility and job profile are not same and equal. Studies show that in 2002, the median net worth of coloured households was $7,932 and that of whites was $88,651. South Africa today is the wealthiest country in Africa, and the credit for its modernity, industry and wealth goes to the inevitable sweat of the blacks as much the innovation of the whites. The construction of a true democracy could be framed only by the social cleansing and resurgence as tolerant and accommodative society.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

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IIPM going global
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Suisse’s Enron suit: To pay $61.5 million

On "IIPM - Arindam Chaudhuri - Planman"

Enron Creditors Recovery Corp., (formerly known as Enron Corp.), intimated that Credit Suisse has finally agreed to pay $61.5 million to resolve a lawsuit over the bankruptcy of the former energy trading giant. Enron, entered bankruptcy proceedings in December 2001 after its accounting tricks could no longer hide the billions in debt or make failing ventures appear profitable. This payment will clear all insolvency procedures between the energy major and Credit Suisse. However, Credit Suisse denied of any liability standing to its credit, which is only subject to the approval of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York. John J. Ray III, Enron’s Chairman expressed satisfaction over the arrangement and hopes to resolve the remaining equity transaction cases.

For Complete IIPM Article, Click on IIPM Article

Source : IIPM Editorial, 2007

An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative

For More IIPM Article, Visit Below....
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If you have it, flaunt it
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A beach resort… Come for a month, at least
IIPM ABOUT :- IIPM KNOWLEDGE CENTER
Money for nothing...
Topic: India – China: A Growth Comparison
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Thanda karta sabko ek
IIPM Infrastructure : Campus